NOAA/NASA Sun Activity Predictions August 2014

Sunspot Prediction Changes @04 August 2014

ssn_predict_l_20140804(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 70 in late 2013. The smoothed sunspot number reached 75.4 in November 2013) so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been rising again towards this second peak over the last five months and has now surpassed the level of the first peak (66.9 in February 2012). Many cycles are double peaked but this is the first in which the second peak in sunspot number was larger than the first. We are currently over five years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.

Again they continue to repeat the complete nonsense written. Obviously no one has proof read the page at all. The first sentence is completely superfluous as the prediction period of late 2013 has passed and they got it wrong as they state in the next sentence – and that number is 75.3 according to their own table not 75.4. As last month this has not been updated to reflect the December figure of 75.9 it seems.
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Posted in AP Index, NASA, NOAA, Solar Cycles, Solar Flux, Sunspot/Flux Predictions, sunspots, SWPC | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Where have all the sunspots gone

Space Weather asks the question. Yet despite the fact that it is as plain as a pikestaff that there are no sunspots they managed to find one!

This week, solar activity has sharply declined. There is only one numbered sunspot on the Earth-facing side of the sun, and it is so small you might have trouble finding it. Click to enlarge this July 17th image from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Obervatory [sic] and see if you can locate AR2113

blank_20140717(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

What do you mean you could not find it??

In case you couldn’t find the sunspot’s tiny decaying core

not-quite-blank_20140717(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Basically this is not even speck counting this is just an out and out lie! Whilst speck-counting is bad enough to try and palm this off as a sunspot is worth of the best snake-oil salesman.

But be afraid, be very afraid!

Long-time readers absorbing this image might be reminded of 2008-2009, years of spotlessness when the sun plunged into the deepest solar minimum in a century. The resemblance, however, is only superficial. Deep inside the sun, the solar dynamo is still churning out knots of magnetism that should soon bob to the surface to make new sunspots. Solar Max is not finished, it’s just miniature.

It really is bad, honest.

NASA/NOAA says so:-

Pesnell points to a number of factors that signal Solar Max conditions in 2014: “The sun’s magnetic field has flipped; we are starting to see the development of long coronal holes; and, oh yes, sunspot counts are cresting.”

Another panelist, Doug Bieseker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, agrees with Pesnell: “Solar Maximum is here …. Finally.” According to an analysis Bieseker presented at NOAA’s Space Weather Workshop in April, the sunspot number for Solar Cycle 24 is near its peak right now.

Cresting? Sunspots at the peak? Just exactly which Solar System do these idiots reside? It certainly is not the one I live in. These people call themselves ‘scientists’ but unfortunately these days that has come to mean grant chasing inveterate liars and scaremongers. All respect for science has rapidly dissipated in the chorus of that most unscientific phenomenon the grant oriented consensus. I accept thathe NOAA report was put out in June when there were some sunspots but for Space Weather to link to it now when the Sun is so quiet, using the phrase solar max is not finished, is just not worthy.

Leave it to Landscheidt to give a more realistic picture

Daily Update:

A third spotless day is recorded with a chance of more to follow, Locarno recording a zero day also without a speck to be found. F10.7 flux down to solar minimum levels.

Laymans_2014-07-18_192701(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

SC24 Summary:

Back in 2008 I made a prediction for SC24 based on what I think are solid foundations. The prediction was for a SSN value of less than 50 according to the old scale. So far I am on track but I also mentioned that SC24 might be a cycle where one hemisphere shuts down. The first peak of SC24 was around 2 years ago where we saw a Sun reach its peak totally dominated by the northern hemisphere, since then there has been a gradual decline in the north to a point where now the south has nearly completely taken over and is attempting to reach a peak similar to the north 2 years ago.

If both hemispheres had experienced this activity at the same time we might have had something close to a normal cycle but now with the prospect of the north shutting down completely some big questions remain. The northern hemisphere has switched polarity (just) and the south is attempting this process and with the new activity should do so, but if the north shuts down there may not be enough flux to take the hemisphere away from neutral. If so this could have ramifications for the next cycle, which I am expecting. What continues to play out with the south will also have consequences, will the south die off quickly as witnessed in the north which will mean the end of SC24 and if so will that hemisphere also have trouble breaking away from neutral?

There is still much to play out that will possibly teach us why solar grand minima go for at least 2 cycles.

List of solar cycles

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NOAA/NASA Sun Activity Predictions July 2014

Sunspot Prediction Changes @July 2014

ssn_predict_l_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 70 in late 2013. The smoothed sunspot number reached 75.4 in November 2013) so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been rising again towards this second peak over the last five months and has now surpassed the level of the first peak (66.9 in February 2012). Many cycles are double peaked but this is the first in which the second peak in sunspot number was larger than the first. We are currently over five years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.

Again they continue to repeat the complete nonsense written. Obviously no one has proof read the page at all. The first sentence is completely superfluous as the prediction period of late 2013 has passed and they got it wrong as they state in the next sentence – and that number is 75.3 according to their own table not 75.4. This has not been updated to reflect the December figure of 75.9 it seems.

sunspot_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The rate of prediction change had got more than a bit lower again. I have changed the charts this month removing older data so it is easier to see the change in predictions over the last 4 months. As before the latest prediction is in Red, the second most recent is in Green, the thirst most recent in Yellow and the 4th most recent is a dotted Blue line.

NOAA_Sunspot_Prediction_Changes_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Three months ago the prediction was just slightly over the month before that. Over the past two months it has nosedived again and is almost back down again. On this chart if the rate of change (ROC) is negative they are increasing the predicted values and if it is positive they are reducing them.

NOAA_Sunspot_Prediction_ROC_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The predicted maximum number of sunspots is almost back down to the December 2013 prediction levels

NOAA_Max_Sunspot_Prediction_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Flux Prediction Changes @July 2014

f10_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The Potsdam smoothed SFU and AP

Potsdam_Smoothed-SFU-AP_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The flux prediction changes chart has also been changed to better show the last 4 months of prediction changes in the smae manner as the sunspot chart.

NOAA_Flux_Prediction_Changes_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

On this chart if the rate of change (ROC) is negative they are increasing the predicted values and if it is positive they are reducing them.

NOAA_Flux_Prediction_ROC_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

NOAA_Max_Flux_Prediction_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Australian SFU and AP Indices

Australian_SFU-AP-Indices_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

AP Indices @July 2014

Ap_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Annual-average-AP-1932-present_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Earth’s Magnetic fields

Earth’s Magnetic Field Weakening

Link to original material Yahoo News

Personally I cannot agree with the statement in the article: “The field exists because Earth has a giant ball of iron at its core surrounded by an outer layer of molten metal”. Such an idea is insane. The only logical explanation is for a plasma core but mainstream science is not really ready to deal with the implications of that.

Also in the blog post and article

Posted in AP Index, NASA, NOAA, Solar Cycles, Solar Flux, Sunspot/Flux Predictions, sunspots, SWPC | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

NOAA/NASA Sun Activity Predictions May 2014

Sunspot Prediction Changes @May 2014

ssn_predict_l_20140505

sunspot_20140505

The rate of prediction change had got a bit lower again.

NOAA_Sunspot_Prediction_Changes_20140505

NOAA_Sunspot_Prediction_ROC_20140505

NOAA_Max_Sunspot_Prediction_20140505

Flux Prediction Changes @May 2014

f10_20140505

Potsdam_Smoothed-SFU-AP_20140505

NOAA_Flux_Prediction_Changes_20140505

NOAA_Flux_Prediction_ROC_20140505

NOAA_Max_Flux_Prediction_20140505

AP Indices @May 2014

Ap_20140505

Annual-average-AP-1932-present_20140505

Posted in AP Index, NASA, NOAA, Solar Cycles, Solar Flux, Sunspot/Flux Predictions, sunspots, SWPC | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

NOAA/NASA Sun Activity Predictions April 2014

A lot of catching up to do!

The predictions for Cycle 24 Max Sunspots and Flux.

ssn_predict_l_20140407

Sunspot Prediction Changes @April 2014

As you can see they were increasing the predicted sunspots from earlier predicted levels

NOAA_Sunspot_Prediction_Changes_20140407

NOAA_Max_Sunspot_Prediction_20140407

NOAA_Sunspot_Prediction_ROC_20140407

Flux Prediction Changes @April 2014

f10_20140407

Potsdam_Smoothed-SFU-AP_20140407

NOAA_Flux_Prediction_Changes_20140407

NOAA_Max_Flux_Prediction_20140407

NOAA_Flux_Prediction_ROC_20140407

AP Indices @April 2014

Ap_20140407

Annual-average-AP-1932-present_20140407

Posted in AP Index, NASA, NOAA, Solar Cycles, Solar Flux, Sunspot/Flux Predictions, sunspots, SWPC | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

NOAA/NASA Sun Activity Prediction Slight Drop Only (October 2013)

The predictions for Cycle 24 Max Sunspots and Flux only took a very slight drop this month (on my limited data). The maximum value of both predictions is still dropping however and thus eating into the “double-peak” which still looks pretty much uncertain.

Sunspot Prediction Changes

sunspot-prediction-changes_20131104
(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Sunspots – The top of the curve

max-sunspots_20131104

Sunspots – Rate of Change

sunspot-prediction-roc_20131101

The Solar flux follows a similar pattern as it should.

Flux Prediction Changes

flux-prediction-changes_20131104
(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Flux – The top of the curve

max-flux_20131104

Flux – Rate of Change

flux-prediction-roc_20131101

Marshall Space Flight Center – Solar Cycle Prediction

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 65 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high.

Still really does not make sense. Perhaps they have not noticed that Summer has Gone, and it is not Sumer Is Icumen In (I remember having to sing that school). The Winter solstice is soon upon us and the weather is unseasonably cold at Summit Camp. Temperatures only hovering around -40 the last few days.

ssn_predict_l_20131104
(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Putting my own chart of the data together (SFU and AP)

PotsdamSFU-AP_20131104(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

The Australian Flux and AP indexes chart as below.

SFU-APIndices_20131101(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Solar Cycle Progression. Presented by the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center

sunspot_20131104(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

f10_20131104(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Ap_20131104(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

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NOAA/NASA Sun Activity Prediction Rates Still Dropping (September 2013)

The predictions for Cycle 24 Max Sunspots and Flux took another tumble this month (on my limited data). The maximum value of both predictions continues to drop eating further into the “double-peak” which now looks pretty much certain is not going to happen.

Sunspot Prediction Changes

Sunspot-Prediction-Changes_20131007
(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Sunspots – The top of the curve

Max-Sunspots_20131007

Sunspots – Rate of Change

Sunspot-Prediction-ROC_20131007

The Solar flux follows a similar pattern as it should.

Flux Prediction Changes

Flux-Prediction-Changes20131007
(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Flux – The top of the curve

Max-Flux_20131007

Flux – Rate of Change

Flux-Prediction_ROC_20131007

Marshall Space Flight Center – Solar Cycle Prediction

I guess they are a bit despondent. They did not change the text this month as their predicted double-peak comes crashing down!

ssn_predict_l_20131007
(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Putting my own chart of the data together (SFU and AP)

potsdam-sfu-ap_20131007
(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

And now SFU, AP and Sunspots

potsdam-sfu-ap-sunspots_20131007

I have removed the unsmoothed values as they contribute nothing and look messy.

The Australian Flux and AP indexes chart as below.

SFU-APIndices_20131011

Solar Cycle Progression. Presented by the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center

sunspot_20131007

f10_20131007

Ap_20131007

Posted in NASA, NOAA, Solar Cycles, sunspots | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment