NOAA/NASA Sun Activity Predictions August 2014

Sunspot Prediction Changes @04 August 2014

ssn_predict_l_20140804(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 70 in late 2013. The smoothed sunspot number reached 75.4 in November 2013) so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been rising again towards this second peak over the last five months and has now surpassed the level of the first peak (66.9 in February 2012). Many cycles are double peaked but this is the first in which the second peak in sunspot number was larger than the first. We are currently over five years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.

Again they continue to repeat the complete nonsense written. Obviously no one has proof read the page at all. The first sentence is completely superfluous as the prediction period of late 2013 has passed and they got it wrong as they state in the next sentence – and that number is 75.3 according to their own table not 75.4. As last month this has not been updated to reflect the December figure of 75.9 it seems.

A larger chart of the above showing 3 sunspot cycles is also available and shown below.
Cycle22Cycle23Cycle24big(Click the Image for a much larger version)

sunspot_20140804(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The rate of prediction change had got more than a bit lower again. The chart below shows the change in predictions over the last 4 months. The latest prediction is in Red, the second most recent is in Green, the thirst most recent in Yellow and the 4th most recent is a dotted Blue line.

NOAA_Sunspot_Prediction_Changes_20140804(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The predicted maximum is down again this month. On this chart below if the rate of change (ROC) is negative they are increasing the predicted values and if it is positive they are reducing them.

NOAA_Sunspot_Prediction_ROC_20140804(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The predicted maximum number of sunspots is now below the December 2013 prediction levels

NOAA_Max_Sunspot_Prediction_20140804(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Flux Prediction Changes @August 2014

f10_20140804(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The Potsdam smoothed SFU and AP

Potsdam_Smoothed-SFU-AP_20140804(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The flux prediction changes chart shows the last 4 months of prediction changes in the same manner as the sunspot chart. The prediction has been increased this month unlike the sunspot prediction which was lowered.

NOAA_Flux_Prediction_Changes_20140804(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

On this chart if the rate of change (ROC) is negative they are increasing the predicted values and if it is positive they are reducing them.

NOAA_Flux_Prediction_ROC_20140804(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

NOAA_Flux_Max_Prediction_20140804(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Australian SFU and AP Indices

SFU-APIndices_20140808(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

AP Indices @August 2014

Ap_20140804(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The Potsdam Ap has not been updated yet and remains as last month
Annual-average-AP-1932-present_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

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About PuterMan

A retired programmer.
This entry was posted in AP Index, NASA, NOAA, Solar Cycles, Solar Flux, Sunspot/Flux Predictions, sunspots, SWPC and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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