NOAA/NASA Sun Activity Predictions July 2014

Sunspot Prediction Changes @July 2014

ssn_predict_l_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 70 in late 2013. The smoothed sunspot number reached 75.4 in November 2013) so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been rising again towards this second peak over the last five months and has now surpassed the level of the first peak (66.9 in February 2012). Many cycles are double peaked but this is the first in which the second peak in sunspot number was larger than the first. We are currently over five years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.

Again they continue to repeat the complete nonsense written. Obviously no one has proof read the page at all. The first sentence is completely superfluous as the prediction period of late 2013 has passed and they got it wrong as they state in the next sentence – and that number is 75.3 according to their own table not 75.4. This has not been updated to reflect the December figure of 75.9 it seems.

sunspot_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The rate of prediction change had got more than a bit lower again. I have changed the charts this month removing older data so it is easier to see the change in predictions over the last 4 months. As before the latest prediction is in Red, the second most recent is in Green, the thirst most recent in Yellow and the 4th most recent is a dotted Blue line.

NOAA_Sunspot_Prediction_Changes_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Three months ago the prediction was just slightly over the month before that. Over the past two months it has nosedived again and is almost back down again. On this chart if the rate of change (ROC) is negative they are increasing the predicted values and if it is positive they are reducing them.

NOAA_Sunspot_Prediction_ROC_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The predicted maximum number of sunspots is almost back down to the December 2013 prediction levels

NOAA_Max_Sunspot_Prediction_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Flux Prediction Changes @July 2014

f10_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The Potsdam smoothed SFU and AP

Potsdam_Smoothed-SFU-AP_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The flux prediction changes chart has also been changed to better show the last 4 months of prediction changes in the smae manner as the sunspot chart.

NOAA_Flux_Prediction_Changes_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

On this chart if the rate of change (ROC) is negative they are increasing the predicted values and if it is positive they are reducing them.

NOAA_Flux_Prediction_ROC_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

NOAA_Max_Flux_Prediction_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Australian SFU and AP Indices

Australian_SFU-AP-Indices_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

AP Indices @July 2014

Ap_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Annual-average-AP-1932-present_20140707(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Earth’s Magnetic fields

Earth’s Magnetic Field Weakening

Link to original material Yahoo News

Personally I cannot agree with the statement in the article: “The field exists because Earth has a giant ball of iron at its core surrounded by an outer layer of molten metal”. Such an idea is insane. The only logical explanation is for a plasma core but mainstream science is not really ready to deal with the implications of that.

Also in the blog post and article

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About PuterMan

A retired programmer.
This entry was posted in AP Index, NASA, NOAA, Solar Cycles, Solar Flux, Sunspot/Flux Predictions, sunspots, SWPC and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to NOAA/NASA Sun Activity Predictions July 2014

  1. Pingback: Weekly Geophysical: 11 July 2014 | QVS Data

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