NOAA/NASA Sun Activity Prediction Slight Drop Only (October 2013)

The predictions for Cycle 24 Max Sunspots and Flux only took a very slight drop this month (on my limited data). The maximum value of both predictions is still dropping however and thus eating into the “double-peak” which still looks pretty much uncertain.

Sunspot Prediction Changes

sunspot-prediction-changes_20131104
(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Sunspots – The top of the curve

max-sunspots_20131104

Sunspots – Rate of Change

sunspot-prediction-roc_20131101

The Solar flux follows a similar pattern as it should.

Flux Prediction Changes

flux-prediction-changes_20131104
(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Flux – The top of the curve

max-flux_20131104

Flux – Rate of Change

flux-prediction-roc_20131101

Marshall Space Flight Center – Solar Cycle Prediction

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 65 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high.

Still really does not make sense. Perhaps they have not noticed that Summer has Gone, and it is not Sumer Is Icumen In (I remember having to sing that school). The Winter solstice is soon upon us and the weather is unseasonably cold at Summit Camp. Temperatures only hovering around -40 the last few days.

ssn_predict_l_20131104
(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Putting my own chart of the data together (SFU and AP)

PotsdamSFU-AP_20131104(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

The Australian Flux and AP indexes chart as below.

SFU-APIndices_20131101(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Solar Cycle Progression. Presented by the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center

sunspot_20131104(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

f10_20131104(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Ap_20131104(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

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About PuterMan

A retired programmer.
This entry was posted in NASA, NOAA, Solar Cycles, sunspots and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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