NOAA/NASA Sun Activity Prediction Rates Still Dropping (September 2013)

The predictions for Cycle 24 Max Sunspots and Flux took another tumble this month (on my limited data). The maximum value of both predictions continues to drop eating further into the “double-peak” which now looks pretty much certain is not going to happen.

Sunspot Prediction Changes

Sunspot-Prediction-Changes_20131007
(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Sunspots – The top of the curve

Max-Sunspots_20131007

Sunspots – Rate of Change

Sunspot-Prediction-ROC_20131007

The Solar flux follows a similar pattern as it should.

Flux Prediction Changes

Flux-Prediction-Changes20131007
(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Flux – The top of the curve

Max-Flux_20131007

Flux – Rate of Change

Flux-Prediction_ROC_20131007

Marshall Space Flight Center – Solar Cycle Prediction

I guess they are a bit despondent. They did not change the text this month as their predicted double-peak comes crashing down!

ssn_predict_l_20131007
(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Putting my own chart of the data together (SFU and AP)

potsdam-sfu-ap_20131007
(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

And now SFU, AP and Sunspots

potsdam-sfu-ap-sunspots_20131007

I have removed the unsmoothed values as they contribute nothing and look messy.

The Australian Flux and AP indexes chart as below.

SFU-APIndices_20131011

Solar Cycle Progression. Presented by the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center

sunspot_20131007

f10_20131007

Ap_20131007

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About PuterMan

A retired programmer.
This entry was posted in NASA, NOAA, Solar Cycles, sunspots and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to NOAA/NASA Sun Activity Prediction Rates Still Dropping (September 2013)

  1. Pingback: Weekly Geophysical: 11 October 2013 | QVS Data

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