NOAA/NASA Sun Activity Prediction Rates Still Dropping (August 2013)

The predictions for Cycle 24 Max Sunspots and Flux continue to drop. The August figures are now in (09 Sept) – The maximum value of both predictions continues to drop eating further into the “double-peak”.

See also other posts: Search Solar Watch for posts with Prediction

I am doubting more and more that we will see any peak that comes anywhere near the top of the current curve

Sunspot Prediction Changes

noaa-sunspot-prediction-change_20130909
(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Sunspots – The top of the curve

max-sunspots_20130909

Sunspots – Rate of Change

max-sunspots-change-rate_20130909

Obviously the Solar flux follows a similar pattern

Flux Prediction Changes

noaa-flux-prediction-change_20130909
(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Flux – The top of the curve

max-flux_20130909

Flux – Rate of Change

max-flux-change-rate_20130909

Marshall Space Flight Center – Solar Cycle Prediction

Last month they said:

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 67 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been rising again over the last four months. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.

This month they say:

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 66 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been flat over the last four months. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.

ssn_predict_l_20130909
(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Putting my own chart of the data together

potsdam-sfu-ap_20130909
(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

The figures at the end where the chart leaps about all over the place are the UN-SMOOTHED values

The Australian Flux and AP indexes chart as below.

SFU-APIndices_20130906

Solar Cycle Progression. Presented by the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center

sunspot_20130909

f10_20130909

Ap_20130909

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About PuterMan

A retired programmer.
This entry was posted in AP Index, NASA, NOAA, Solar Cycles, Solar Flux, Sunspot/Flux Predictions, sunspots and tagged , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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