NOAA/NASA Sun Activity Prediction Rates Still Dropping

The predictions for Cycle 24 Max Sunspots and Flux took a bigger than normal tumble this month (on my limited data). The maximum value of both predictions continues to drop eating further into the “double-peak”.

There may be a double-peak, but the second peak is looking very unlikely to exceed the first which means we have, as I have posted before, passed the Solar Max.

Sunspot Prediction Changes

(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Sunspots – The top of the curve


Sunspots – Rate of Change


Obviously the Solar flux follows a similar pattern

Flux Prediction Changes

(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Flux – The top of the curve


Flux – Rate of Change


Marshall Space Flight Center – Solar Cycle Prediction

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 67 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been rising again over the last four months. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.

Curiously this was updated 01 July before the June figures were apparently published by Potsdam.

(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Putting my own chart of the data together

(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

The figures at the end where the chart leaps about all over the place are the UN-SMOOTHED values

The Australian Flux and AP indexes chart as below.


Solar Cycle Progression. Presented by the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center





About PuterMan

A retired programmer.
This entry was posted in NASA, NOAA, Solar Cycles, sunspots and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to NOAA/NASA Sun Activity Prediction Rates Still Dropping

  1. CRIKEY says:

    Thanks for your work Puterman. I have bookmarked your site to follow
    Interesting times to study weather and the sun for sure..

    • PuterMan says:

      I had a look at the forum link in your name. Way too much into AGW for my liking but yes interesting times indeed. Thank you for calling by.

      My personal feeling is that we will see a cooling over the next 30 to 40 years – based on Sun cycles – but whether we come out the other side into warming again by mid century will be dependent on just how much we dip into the colder times because of the lower Solar output. There is a point at which we can keep on going down.

      Hot or cold I won’t live to see it, and right now a warm climate sounds like a good idea for my old bones!

  2. What is the source for the ISES charts? The moving averages so far below forecastit makes me wonder if there won’t be a major forecast revisions soon. Please keep updating! Great stuff. I’m a (involuntarily) semi retired PhD economist writing a thriller about reglaciation, but I’ve been following this for some time. The consensus estimates for an other things equal start to the next Ice Age seem to be between 25,000 and 50,000 years out. But cooling over the next several decades seems a given.

    • PuterMan says:

      Hi, the link for the ISES charts is just above the first ISES chart and the data I believe comes from Potsdam via NOAA. The link for that is in the first paragraph.

      The August figures are just in today so I will be posting more charts later tonight or tomorrow.

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