The predictions for Cycle 24 Max Sunspots and Flux took a bigger than normal tumble this month (on my limited data). The maximum value of both predictions continues to drop eating further into the “double-peak”.
There may be a double-peak, but the second peak is looking very unlikely to exceed the first which means we have, as I have posted before, passed the Solar Max.
Sunspot Prediction Changes
Sunspots – The top of the curve
Sunspots – Rate of Change
Obviously the Solar flux follows a similar pattern
Flux Prediction Changes
Flux – The top of the curve
Flux – Rate of Change
Marshall Space Flight Center – Solar Cycle Prediction
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 67 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been rising again over the last four months. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.
Curiously this was updated 01 July before the June figures were apparently published by Potsdam.
Putting my own chart of the data together
The figures at the end where the chart leaps about all over the place are the UN-SMOOTHED values
The Australian Flux and AP indexes chart as below.
Solar Cycle Progression. Presented by the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center