With the publication of the solar indices on June 3rd are we seeing a hint that NASA / NOAA are suggesting that we may have already passed Solar Max? Has the much vaunted ‘double-peak’ been dropped. The predictions, and yes they are predictions because they say so, have dropped again.
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 67 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been rising again over the last four months. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.
With a smoothed sunspot number of 67 (RI) or 94.2 (SWO) in February 2012, and a predicted SWO smoothed value of 86.9 in November (the prediction that keeps falling) it would appear that the prospect of a Solar Max in 2014 has been quietly dropped despite much trumpeting of it on Space Weather. The admission above that summer of this year (by which I take it to mean Northern hemisphere) means that Solar Max was passed in February 2012.
This agrees with the data presented by the Solar Terrestrial Activity Report which at this date looks like this:
On the ISES charts the predicted values are looking decidedly silly in my opinion. There seems to be a need by these organisation to cling to the hope that there will be a bigger cycle instead of getting to grips with the fact that th Sun is quieter and we are headed into a cool period. Maybe it is because the don’t want to admit that it is the Sun that drives the climate and their carbon scaremongering is just a big scam.
The above three images are all from Solar Cycle Progression
My own chart of the data, incorporating the predictions is below.
If the maximum smoother SWO sunspot number is now 86.9, and the Feb 2012 value was 94.2 then this is saying that even if there is another small peak we did pass Solar Max in February 2012 so talk about getting to max in the summer of 2013 is just flannelling. Indeed this has been the case since I started collecting these predictions so one has to wonder what they are playing at maintaining the stance, other than my suggestion above perhaps.
Continuing the theme from this post NASA “Double-Peak” Estimates Dropping the predictions or projections as they were trying to claim recently (we do not make predictions – whilst calling them that!) have dropped again this month.
The maximum predicted sunspot numbers and flux are now like this:
Face up to it. We passed Solar Max. The world won’t end because of it, you just might need to make your climate models work properly.