NASA “Double-Peak” Estimates Dropping

NASA has made much of the suggestion that we have not passed the Solar Max and that as with the last Solar Cycle 23 we should expect a double peak.

There may be an upturn in activity, but in the end will it surpass the peak that we appear to have had? I, and others, think not but NASA seems to be unwilling or incapable of getting their heads round the apparent fact that we (may) have passed the solar max and are on the downward slope to a Maunder minimum or Landscheidt minimum.

The quiet has led some observers to wonder if forecasters missed the mark. Solar physicist Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center has a different explanation:

“This is solar maximum,” he suggests. “But it looks different from what we expected because it is double peaked.”

But it seems that perhaps they do not feel so secure about this conviction as they/NOAA drop the predicted levels each month.

Unfortunately I have only been watching this for the last three months so do not have as much data as I would like, but the three months are sufficient to tell me that they are wavering.

This graph shows the PREDICTED Sun Spots column from Predict.txt.

Sunspot-prediction-changes-May-2013
(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

And this is the Maximum value from each of the traces.

Max-predicted-sunspots-May-2013

Obviously the predicted flux follows thsame pattern as it must but here are the charts for the flux.

Flux-prediction-changes-May-2013
(Click the Image for a slightly larger/clearer version)

Max-predicted-flux-May-2013

Russian scientists have been saying we are in for a very cold time, and recently as reported on Ice Age Now, they have extended this from 30 or 40 years to 150 to 200 years.

Putting it all on the one chart since 1991 we get:

NOAA_Potsdam-smoothed-SFU-AP-May-2013
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

And a version with sun spot counts, or specks that the establishment insists are sunspots.

NOAA_Potsdam-smoothed-SFU-AP-Spots-May-2013
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Note: The data for the above charts is from my main spreadsheet not the one linked below. I can provide the spreadsheet if you would like the full data instead of the prediction changes only. Leave a comment with your email address – comments are NOT visible until I authorise them and your email address will be deleted.

Science should be prepared to admit when it is wrong, and in many cases this happens, but the cloaking of potential problems by mainstream science is akin to walking in a minefield with your eyes closed and your fingers in your ears. “Don’t worry the sheeple” is NOT a sensible or reasonable approach. If people need to prepare for the worst then let them know that the worst MAY happen and not allow them to continue supping ‘champers’ on the promenade deck as an iceberg rips a hole in the side when they should be getting their lifejackets.

You can download a copy of the Excel XLSX file here: Solar-Prediction-Changes

Advertisements

About PuterMan

A retired programmer.
This entry was posted in Astronomy, NASA, NOAA, Solar Cycles, sunspots and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to NASA “Double-Peak” Estimates Dropping

  1. Pingback: Weekly Geophysical: 10 May 2013 | QVS Data

  2. Pingback: Are NASA / NOAA admitting the Solar Max has passed? | Solar Watch

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s