Solar Cycle 24 – Predictions lowest for 100 years

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 60 in the Spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years.

The smoothed aa index reached its minimum (a record low) of 8.4 in September of 2009. Using Ohl’s method now indicates a maximum sunspot number of 70 ± 18 for cycle 24. We then use the shape of the sunspot cycle as described by Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann [Solar Physics 151, 177 (1994)] and determine a starting time for the cycle by fitting the latitude drift data to produce a prediction of the monthly sunspot numbers through the next cycle. We find a maximum of about 60 in the Spring of 2013.

Read the remainder of the article here at NASA/Marshall Solar Physics or on Watts Up With That?.

The 10.7 Solar flux is also an indicator and needless to say this pretty much follows the same pattern.

You can get the Solar Flux values here.


About PuterMan

A retired programmer.
This entry was posted in Solar Cycles, sunspots and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to Solar Cycle 24 – Predictions lowest for 100 years

  1. Pingback: Solar Cycle 24 – Predictions lowest for 100 years | Solar Watch | Solar Flare 2012

  2. wfoster2011 says:

    Reblogged this on Chaos Sweeps Away the World We Know! The Disaster, current events & Catastrophe Blog. Forecasts for 2012 to 2020. Read tomorrows news today! Plus current economic, commodities, stock indices and financial news. and commented:
    May 16, 2012 – Solar Cycle 24 Lowest in 100 Years: This was brought to my attention by one of my subscribers (see comment section of my last post). This is a great analysis of the current Solar Cycle. The NY Times article was some what alarmist, in that if the Solar cycle is expected to be so low, then it will probably not produce the calamity that was characterized in the Times article.
    The Master of Disaster

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