Update on Solar Cycle 24

Solar Cycle Prediction (Updated 2011/12/16)

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 99 in February of 2013 (See last April prediction here.). We are currently about three years into Cycle 24. Increased activity in the last few months has raised the predicted maximum and moved it earlier in 2013. The current predicted size still make this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 80 years.


See the original image here

The solar flux, an indicator of the suns activity, is currently 139.1

Th solar radio flux prediction in text format is as here (as downloaded for the linked page) Jump to the Graphs:

Cycle 24 10.7cm Radio Flux Prediction (December 2011)
Year Mon  95%   50%    5%
2008   1  72.0  68.3  67.0
2008   2  71.7  68.2  67.0
2008   3  71.4  68.0  67.0
2008   4  71.2  67.9  67.0
2008   5  70.9  67.9  67.0
2008   6  70.7  67.8  67.0
2008   7  70.4  67.7  67.0
2008   8  70.2  67.6  67.0
2008   9  70.0  67.6  67.0
2008  10  69.8  67.5  67.0
2008  11  69.7  67.5  67.0
2008  12  69.5  67.4  67.0
2009   1  69.3  67.4  67.0
2009   2  69.2  67.3  67.0
2009   3  69.1  67.3  67.0
2009   4  68.9  67.3  67.0
2009   5  68.8  67.2  67.0
2009   6  68.9  67.2  67.0
2009   7  69.2  67.3  67.0
2009   8  69.7  67.5  67.0
2009   9  70.5  67.7  67.0
2009  10  71.5  68.1  67.0
2009  11  72.7  68.6  67.0
2009  12  74.2  69.2  67.0
2010   1  75.8  70.0  67.0
2010   2  77.6  71.0  67.0
2010   3  79.6  72.1  67.0
2010   4  81.8  73.4  67.0
2010   5  84.1  74.9  67.0
2010   6  86.7  76.5  67.0
2010   7  89.3  78.2  67.2
2010   8  92.1  80.1  68.2
2010   9  95.0  82.2  69.3
2010  10  98.0  84.3  70.6
2010  11 101.1  86.6  72.0
2010  12 104.3  88.9  73.4
2011   1 107.6  91.3  75.0
2011   2 110.8  93.8  76.7
2011   3 114.1  96.3  78.4
2011   4 117.4  98.8  80.2
2011   5 120.7 101.4  82.0
2011   6 124.0 104.0  83.9
2011   7 127.3 106.5  85.8
2011   8 130.5 109.1  87.7
2011   9 133.7 111.6  89.6
2011  10 136.8 114.1  91.5
2011  11 139.8 116.6  93.3
2011  12 142.7 119.0  95.2
2012   1 145.6 121.3  97.0
2012   2 148.3 123.5  98.7
2012   3 151.0 125.7 100.4
2012   4 153.5 127.8 102.1
2012   5 155.9 129.8 103.6
2012   6 158.2 131.7 105.2
2012   7 160.4 133.5 106.6
2012   8 162.5 135.2 108.0
2012   9 164.4 136.8 109.2
2012  10 166.2 138.3 110.4
2012  11 167.8 139.7 111.5
2012  12 169.3 140.9 112.6
2013   1 170.7 142.1 113.5
2013   2 171.9 143.1 114.3
2013   3 173.0 144.0 115.1
2013   4 174.0 144.9 115.7
2013   5 174.8 145.5 116.3
2013   6 175.5 146.1 116.8
2013   7 176.0 146.6 117.1
2013   8 176.4 146.9 117.4
2013   9 176.7 147.1 117.6
2013  10 176.8 147.3 117.7
2013  11 176.8 147.3 117.7
2013  12 176.7 147.2 117.6
2014   1 176.5 147.0 117.5
2014   2 176.2 146.7 117.2
2014   3 175.7 146.3 116.9
2014   4 175.1 145.8 116.5
2014   5 174.4 145.2 116.1
2014   6 173.7 144.6 115.5
2014   7 172.8 143.8 114.9
2014   8 171.8 143.0 114.2
2014   9 170.7 142.1 113.5
2014  10 169.5 141.1 112.7
2014  11 168.3 140.1 111.9
2014  12 167.0 139.0 111.0
2015   1 165.6 137.8 110.0
2015   2 164.1 136.6 109.1
2015   3 162.6 135.3 108.0
2015   4 161.0 134.0 107.0
2015   5 159.4 132.6 105.9
2015   6 157.7 131.2 104.8
2015   7 155.9 129.8 103.6
2015   8 154.2 128.3 102.5
2015   9 152.4 126.8 101.3
2015  10 150.5 125.3 100.1
2015  11 148.6 123.8  98.9
2015  12 146.8 122.2  97.7
2016   1 144.8 120.7  96.5
2016   2 142.9 119.1  95.3
2016   3 141.0 117.5  94.1
2016   4 139.1 116.0  92.9
2016   5 137.1 114.4  91.7
2016   6 135.2 112.8  90.5
2016   7 133.2 111.3  89.3
2016   8 131.3 109.7  88.2
2016   9 129.4 108.2  87.0
2016  10 127.5 106.7  85.9
2016  11 125.6 105.2  84.8
2016  12 123.7 103.7  83.7
2017   1 121.9 102.3  82.7
2017   2 120.1 100.9  81.7
2017   3 118.3  99.5  80.7
2017   4 116.5  98.1  79.7
2017   5 114.8  96.8  78.8
2017   6 113.1  95.5  77.9
2017   7 111.4  94.2  77.0
2017   8 109.8  93.0  76.2
2017   9 108.2  91.8  75.3
2017  10 106.6  90.6  74.6
2017  11 105.1  89.5  73.8
2017  12 103.6  88.4  73.1
2018   1 102.2  87.3  72.4
2018   2 100.8  86.3  71.8
2018   3  99.4  85.3  71.2
2018   4  98.1  84.3  70.6
2018   5  96.8  83.4  70.0
2018   6  95.5  82.5  69.5
2018   7  94.3  81.7  69.0
2018   8  93.2  80.9  68.6
2018   9  92.0  80.1  68.2
2018  10  90.9  79.3  67.8
2018  11  89.9  78.6  67.4
2018  12  88.9  78.0  67.0
2019   1  87.9  77.3  67.0
2019   2  87.0  76.7  67.0
2019   3  86.0  76.1  67.0
2019   4  85.2  75.5  67.0
2019   5  84.3  75.0  67.0
2019   6  83.5  74.5  67.0
2019   7  82.8  74.0  67.0
2019   8  82.0  73.6  67.0
2019   9  81.3  73.1  67.0
2019  10  80.6  72.7  67.0
2019  11  80.0  72.4  67.0
2019  12  79.4  72.0  67.0

The current figure is close enough for jazz as they say. This is showing a peak at October 2013 which is substantially further away than the original predictions.

Here is a graph of the text file showing just this cycle.

And here is the GIF image downloaded from the site with the last cycle and this.

f107_predict

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About PuterMan

A retired programmer.
This entry was posted in Astronomy, sunspots. Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to Update on Solar Cycle 24

  1. Pingback: Solor Cycle 24 continues to decline | Solar Watch

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